2024 Will be Mixed for Industry Volume, Job Prospects
Written By: Joel Palmer, Op-Ed Writer
A number of questions hang over the mortgage industry as 2024 begins.
What impact will this year’s presidential election have on the industry’s future?
Will mortgage rates and home prices moderate enough to make home buying more amenable to more potential buyers?
How will artificial intelligence continue to impact the industry?
For mortgage underwriters and mortgage processors, the answers to these and other questions will determine the biggest questions most have about 2024 and beyond:
What are the job and salary prospects for mortgage professionals?
Fannie Mae, in its December commentary, forecasted a slow recovery in home sales and mortgage originations amid a modern downturn in the economy in 2024. Fannie cautioned that the projected increase in applications is based on the assumption that mortgage rates continue to slide. Fannie also said that the same dynamics that kept home sales in 2023 at their lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis — affordability challenges, the lock-in effect, and a lack of homes available for sale — will likely persist in 2024.
Overall, Fannie is forecasting:
Total home sales of around 4.8 million in 2023 and 2024, and 5.4 million in 2025.
Total single-family mortgage originations to grow from $1.5 trillion in 2023 to $1.9 trillion in 2024, and then to $2.3 trillion in 2025.
An average 30-year mortgage rate of 6.7 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025.
Slight increases over previous projections for 2024 for refinance volume, as well as housing starts in both single-family and multifamily sectors.
Other experts are predicting 30-year fixed mortgage rates to end this year around 6 percent. This is an important barrier since it’s estimated that 92 percent of current homeowners have a rate under that mark.
First National Bank of Omaha says in its outlook that housing affordability will be helped slightly by the Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) having increased the conforming loan limit values (CLLs) for mortgages Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will acquire in 2024. In most of the United States, the 2024 CLL value for one-unit properties will be $766,550, an increase of $40,350 from 2023.
Mortgage technology firm MCT forecasts mortgage rates to reach 6.6 percent by the end of this year and won’t drop below 6 percent until 2025. MCT also doesn’t expect home prices to moderate, noting that there were 14.5 percent fewer units of homes available for sale compared to the previous year.
As for the future need for mortgage professionals, Bureau of Labor Statistics says that employment of loan officers, which includes those dealing with mortgages, is projected to grow 3 percent from 2022 to 2032, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 25,300 openings for loan officers are projected each year, on average, over the decade. Many of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire.
Zippia research indicates that the mortgage underwriter job growth rate will be 4 percent between the years 2018 and 2028. There are roughly 123,500 mortgage underwriters employed in the U.S. with just over 9,000 active openings. About 12,600 new jobs for mortgage underwriters are projected over the next decade.
As 2024 begins, mortgage underwriters can expect to earn between $38,000 and $100,000, depending on experience and location.
Zippia says underwriters are making an average of $55,721, with the highest salaries in New Mexico, New York and New Jersey.
The website Salary reports that level III underwriters are earning a median salary of $87,000, with the typical range falling between $77,000 and $99,762.
Indeed says mortgage underwriters in the U.S. are currently being paid an average of $74,000 annually.
For loan processors, which include mortgage processors, job growth is not as robust. Zippia forecasts -3 percent growth from 2018 to 2028. Zippia says there are more than 221,000 loan processors employed in the U.S. with more than 16,000 active openings.
Zippia also reports that the average salary for loan processors is $38,000 and that it has increased 7 percent in the last five years.
